AISportsPlaysAccuracy
Confident picks — the market had a real lean on these
Season
612 picks
Moneyline259-190(57.7%)
Total316-282-14(52.8%)
Run Line148-128-0(53.6%)
Last 10 days
5 picks
Moneyline2-3(40.0%)
Total2-3-0(40.0%)
Run Line2-1-0(66.7%)
Last 5 days
3 picks
Moneyline2-1(66.7%)
Total1-2-0(33.3%)
Run Line1-0-0(100.0%)
Toss-up games — market had no real lean, kept separate from the record above
Season
Toss-Up82-81(50.3%)
Last 10 days
Toss-Up0-0
Last 5 days
Toss-Up0-0
Calibration (season) — does a pick's stated confidence match its actual win rate?
Moneyline
Since 2026-09-08 — a confidence-calibration fix landed that day; earlier picks used a different, since-corrected scale.
| Stated confidence | Sample | Actual win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50-59% | 69-80 | 46.3% |
| 60-69% | 71-54 | 56.8% |
| 70-79% | 11-0 | 100.0% |
| 80-89% | 1-0 | 100.0%(small sample) |
| 90-100% | — | no data |
Run Line
| Stated confidence | Sample | Actual win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50-59% | 19-16 | 54.3% |
| 60-69% | 27-21 | 56.3% |
| 70-79% | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 80-89% | 91-81 | 52.9% |
| 90-100% | — | no data |
Total
| Stated confidence | Sample | Actual win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50-59% | 177-175 | 50.3% |
| 60-69% | 87-65 | 57.2% |
| 70-79% | 31-25 | 55.4% |
| 80-89% | 14-7 | 66.7% |
| 90-100% | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| Date | Picks | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 2026-10-15 | 1 | 1-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 2026-10-14 | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 2026-10-12 | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 2026-10-08 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 2026-10-07 | 4 | 1-3 | 2-2-0 | 1-2-1 |
| 2026-10-05 | 2 | 1-1 | 2-0-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 2026-10-03 | 1 | 1-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 4 | 3-1 | 3-0-0 | 3-1-0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 4 | 2-2 | 3-1-0 | 2-2-0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 14 | 7-7 | 5-9-0 | 8-6-0 |
| 2026-09-26 | 13 | 3-10 | 2-11-0 | 5-7-1 |
| 2026-09-25 | 17 | 9-8 | 11-4-0 | 10-7-0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 12 | 8-4 | 7-4-0 | 10-2-0 |
| 2026-09-23 | 16 | 9-7 | 5-11-0 | 11-5-0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 15 | 8-7 | 5-9-0 | 9-6-0 |
| 2026-09-21 | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2-0 | 3-0-0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 15 | 10-5 | 8-7-0 | 7-7-1 |
| 2026-09-19 | 15 | 11-4 | 10-5-0 | 7-8-0 |
| 2026-09-18 | 15 | 12-3 | 6-9-0 | 7-8-0 |
| 2026-09-17 | 9 | 6-3 | 6-3-0 | 6-3-0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 15 | 6-9 | 6-9-0 | 6-9-0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 15 | 8-7 | 8-5-0 | 7-8-0 |
| 2026-09-14 | 10 | 5-5 | 6-4-0 | 6-4-0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 15 | 6-9 | 8-7-0 | 7-6-2 |
| 2026-09-12 | 15 | 8-7 | 7-8-0 | 5-9-1 |
| 2026-09-11 | 15 | 7-8 | 10-5-0 | 9-5-1 |
| 2026-09-10 | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 |
| 2026-09-09 | 15 | 9-6 | 10-5-0 | 3-12-0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 15 | 6-9 | 11-4-0 | 5-9-1 |
| 2026-09-07 | 11 | 7-4 | 0-0-0 | 5-5-1 |
| 2026-09-06 | 15 | 10-5 | 0-0-0 | 8-6-1 |
| 2026-09-05 | 15 | 8-7 | 0-0-0 | 11-4-0 |
| 2026-09-04 | 16 | 10-6 | 0-0-0 | 12-4-0 |
| 2026-09-03 | 9 | 6-3 | 0-0-0 | 5-4-0 |
| 2026-09-02 | 15 | 5-10 | 0-0-0 | 10-5-0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 15 | 8-7 | 0-0-0 | 6-9-0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 12 | 7-5 | 0-0-0 | 5-7-0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 14 | 8-6 | 0-0-0 | 10-3-1 |
| 2026-08-29 | 17 | 12-5 | 0-0-0 | 7-9-1 |
| 2026-08-28 | 15 | 9-6 | 0-0-0 | 4-10-1 |
| 2026-08-27 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0-0 | 3-4-0 |
| 2026-08-26 | 15 | 9-6 | 0-0-0 | 6-9-0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 15 | 4-11 | 0-0-0 | 5-10-0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 10 | 3-7 | 0-0-0 | 7-3-0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 15 | 13-2 | 0-0-0 | 8-7-0 |
| 2026-08-22 | 15 | 9-6 | 0-0-0 | 7-8-0 |
| 2026-08-21 | 15 | 12-3 | 0-0-0 | 6-8-1 |
| 2026-08-20 | 9 | 7-2 | 0-0-0 | 5-4-0 |
| 2026-08-19 | 15 | 8-7 | 0-0-0 | 9-6-0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 15 | 11-4 | 0-0-0 | 9-6-0 |
| 2026-08-17 | 11 | 6-5 | 0-0-0 | 9-2-0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 15 | 6-9 | 0-0-0 | 8-7-0 |
| 2026-08-15 | 15 | 8-7 | 0-0-0 | 6-9-0 |