How to read a pick
A plain-language guide to what's on the Picks and Accuracy pages. For how the engine is built in general, see the About page.
What does the Moneyline pick and percentage mean?
The Moneyline pick is which team we think wins the game outright, and the percentage next to it is how confident we are. It comes from blending our own read of team form, pitching, and matchups with what the betting markets themselves are saying — since the market is usually efficient and worth weighing seriously, not ignoring.
What's the "Vegas: X%" line underneath?
That's what the real sportsbook odds imply about each team's chances, shown right next to our own number so you can see how our pick relates to the market's view instead of taking it on faith.
What does "Toss-Up" mean?
Some games, the betting markets genuinely have no strong opinion — both sides are priced close to even. When that happens, we still show a lean rather than pretend we have nothing to say, but we're upfront that it's a lower-confidence situation and label it plainly instead of dressing it up as a strong pick.
What's "Total Runs" and the Over/Under pick?
Our projection for how many combined runs both teams will score, and whether we think the game goes over or under a given number. Same idea as the Moneyline — our own projection shown next to the market's own total line for comparison.
What are the small cards under each pick (Recent Form, Pitching, Market, etc.)?
The specific reasons behind a pick — team form, starting pitcher matchups, ballpark and weather conditions, and how the pick relates to the betting markets — grouped into a few plain themes so you can see roughly why a pick leans the way it does.
What are "Home Run Watch," "Most Likely to Get a Hit," and "Strikeout Projection"?
Individual player projections layered on top of the main picks — which batters look most likely to homer or get a hit tonight, and how many strikeouts we expect from each starter, based on recent form and tonight's specific matchup.
What does the "Hot" badge mean?
It flags a player whose odds tonight are meaningfully better than a typical league-average hitter's — a quick visual cue for a standout matchup, not a guarantee.
What do the WIN / LOSS / PUSH badges mean?
Once a game is final, every pick is checked against the real result and marked win, loss, or (for a total landing exactly on the line) push — automatically, the same way for every pick, good or bad.
On the Accuracy page, why is the record split into "confident" picks and toss-ups?
Toss-up games are, by definition, ones the market itself has no real opinion on. Folding them into one blended number would let a handful of coin-flip games quietly drag down — or inflate — the number that's supposed to reflect real pick quality. Splitting them out is the more honest way to report it.
Why don't you publish the exact formula and weights?
We're open about the ingredients — real stats, recent trends, matchups, and the betting markets all go into every pick, and every pick is graded in the open so you can judge us by the results. What we don't publish is the exact recipe behind it — the specific thresholds and weightings — since that's the part that would let anyone copy the model outright instead of judging it by its actual track record.